In March of 1968, then-President Lyndon B. Johnson made the decision to not run for renomination as the Democratic Party’s candidate in the upcoming presidential Election, citing the tumult within the country at the time. This marked an era before the modern nominating process with its 50-state primaries and caucuses and assigned delegates. It was a free-for-all resulting in Robert F. Kennedy emerging as a candidate until his assassination. Vice President Hubert Humphrey was nominated at a convention that was split and tense in August.
Fast forward to today, and we have a more refined process, 50 years later. This is due to the implementation of the system in use now, which has aided in maintaining relatively calm nominations. However, with the 2024 election front-runners facing additional pressures and of historical age, it is not far-fetched that the nominating contests could be overturned.
The presidential election cycle can be categorized into three parts. The first part being a period when the major parties have control over their nominees and the last part is the period that unfolds after votes have been cast and the electoral votes have been counted. Within this space, things can get murky.
Both the Democratic and Republican parties have meticulously detailed rules that govern how candidates are selected which includes how delegates are awarded or replaced if needed. The parties can change these rules if they so choose.
If a vacancy in the selection process was to arise, the process can devolve from thereon. The party processes are people-driven, and the party’s focal turning point if faced with a candidate withdrawal or vacancy would be the nominating conventions. This would create a scramble for power among the key decision-makers.
The conventions are also people-driven, and most states have rules that determine elector voting. However, If a vacancy or withdrawal were to occur, it would create a challenging situation. Moreover, state legislatures might have to intervene, and, in the case of no majority triumph among the electoral votes, the House of Representatives would be responsible for electing the president.
In conclusion, the mechanics of all this are guided by established rules that are also malleable should the parties wish. In light of the historical context of this issue, the year 1968 now stands as a lesson for the repercussions that choosing a candidate who replaced an incumbent president had. After Johnson withdrew, the successor, Humphrey, was defeated in a general election by Richard Nixon.
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