Longtime GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy is set to leave Congress on Dec. 31, causing confusion over who is eligible to run for his seat in a conservative Central Valley district in California. A dozen candidates have entered the race, but McCarthy’s chosen Republican successor was barred from the ballot and has sued the California secretary of state in an attempt to reverse the decision.
This succession chaos comes months after McCarthy was ousted as speaker of the House by his own party, leaving a power vacuum in his district. Democrats are eager to capitalize on the situation, sending out fundraising emails saying McCarthy’s protege will be “mired in legal challenges for weeks.”
Bakersfield locals are upset about the confusion, and political professionals are expressing disbelief at the situation. McCarthy’s departure from the race is unexpected, as he had built his power over two decades as a masterful tactician of electoral Politics who helped Republicans win control of the House in the 2010 Election and again in 2022.
The March 5 primary for the district will be the first Election without an incumbent candidate since 2006, and only the second since 1978. The district, the most conservative in California, is expected to elect a Republican, but the chaos surrounding the succession is unprecedented.
The bar on McCarthy’s chosen successor has left the electoral race open to nearly a dozen candidates, including only one prominent Democrat. The race is expected to be highly contested, with significant political implications.
Despite McCarthy’s departure, he is expected to continue focusing on helping Republicans keep the congressional majority and recruiting good candidates. After McCarthy leaves office, a special Election will be held to temporarily fill his seat until January 2025. Governor Gavin Newsom will have 14 days to set the date of a primary for the special Election. However, the logistics of holding a special Election concurrently with the regularly scheduled primary Election pose challenges for local elections officials in the district.
This succession crisis has created significant uncertainty for constituents who have come to expect consistent leadership from powerful, longtime members of Congress. With the chaos of the succession plan, the race for McCarthy’s seat remains open and unpredictable.
